Wednesday, May 7, 2025.
While in Taiwan, one of my nephews (age 17) asked about my thoughts on AI and programming job security while at a birthday banquet for my dad. I was surprised, not realizing he might have been following the conversation I was having with his scientist dad as we got to know each other in English.
I thought a bit and said that my understanding of AI as a programming tool was that it was only as good as its training data. At the time of this writing, AI isn't good enough to replace programmers doing original and complex works, and it wasn't good enough to come up with novel solutions that met the needs of demanding human clients. That said, AI programming tools were already good enough to automate the simpler everyday work, and for many businesses who just "need something that works, fast" that AI would be increasingly in the way of getting a job. While high-level expertise would likely still be in demand for now, I couldn't say that this would hold even in the next couple of years.
That's about as far as I got, before a round of birthday well wishers flooded our table. My nephew said that he had understood what I said, and I was happy to have been able to talk to him for the first time! However, I've been thinking more about this specific time and place in a 17 year-old Taiwanese, trying to imagine what the world looked like from his perspective, and if I had anything futher to say that would even make sense.
Let's face it...to a 17-yo person I'm as old as shit. My reference point is not going to align easily with that as someone with their entire adult life before them.